Working Papers

Divided They Fall. Fragmented Parliaments and Government Stability  (with Felipe Carozzi and Luca Repetto)

Links: Abstract; CEMFI WP (May 2019)

Media: Blog article (

Biased Forecasts to Affect Voting Decisions? The Brexit Case (with André Reslow)

Links: Abstract; Latest version (September 2019); Sveriges Riksbank WP (March 2019); Uppsala University WP (March 2019)

Media: The Telegraph (Full article here); RT UK News (video); Citywire Financial Publishers; Brexit Central; EEA Congress 2019 Press Release


Voting Systems, Incentives and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Runoff and Plurality

Finalist at ITAX PhD Student Award 2018

Links: Abstract Latest version (October 2019); Uppsala University WP (Oct. 2018)

Work in progress

Why so few Women are Leaders in Politics?

Abstract: Women are underrepresented in politics at all levels. While it is well known that institutions can increase the share of women in parliaments, it is not clear whether they can help selecting women into leadership positions. In this paper, I compare the election rates of female leaders under the presidential and the parliamentary system and, within the presidential system, between the plurality and the runoff (or dual ballot) voting rules. A reform in 1993 introduced a presidential system in Italian municipalities and assigned different voting systems based on a population threshold. The results show that i) the presidential system encourages the selection of female mayors and that ii) within the presidential system, more women are selected into office under the plurality rule than under the runoff.

Electoral Cycles in Macroeconomic Forecasts (with André Reslow)